Predicting President Trump's Nuclear Order

President Trump will be inaugurated for his second term as President of the United States on the 20th January 2024. His second administration promises to go substantially further than his first term in reshaping American domestic and foreign policy. It is challenging to predict what a second Trump administration will mean for the nuclear order and for nonproliferation more generally. 

One way to provide insight into what a second Trump administration may look like is to use prediction and forecasting. As was seen with Polymarket during the election campaign, market prediction can be a powerful tool that provides insight into what outcomes are more likely. 

With this in mind, this page contains a collated list of predictions relevant to the nuclear order. These predictions are hosted on the Metaculus platform where you may make your predictions about these issues. 

For now, this list is simply a collation of existing questions. In future, this may be expanded to new questions. It would also be interesting to use these approaches for broader research into the potential paths for the Trump Administration's nuclear policy. 

For those interested in funding this initiative, please contact Ian Stewart.