Pages 146-149 from DEFE 70-2838

The document discusses the Russian proposals for further strategic reductions in the US and Russian nuclear arsenals. The US had offered to eliminate all multiple-warhead inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in exchange for a Russian commitment to do the same, but the Russians did not respond positively. The Russian proposal outlined in the document suggests a two-stage reduction plan, with an aggregate total of 4,500-4,700 warheads during the first stage and a reduction to 2,500 warheads by the year 2005 in the second stage.

The document also mentions possible US options, including reducing the total warheads to 4,200 or 3,600, with variations in the number of specific missile types. The US may consider further reductions to secure cuts in the SS-18 force, and the elimination or reduction of SS-18s could be driven by concerns related to GPALS (Global Protection Against Limited Strikes) and the potential narrowing of the gap between GPALS and a fully-fledged Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI).

The document discusses the potential implications for the UK if the US goes beyond the initial proposals. It suggests that further reductions in US and Russian arsenals could increase pressure on the UK to cut its own nuclear forces. Additionally, if the US offers to cut its Trident warhead numbers, the UK may face direct pressure to do the same. Furthermore, if overall US warhead numbers are reduced and Trident is downgraded to four warheads per missile, it may lead to calls for a complete redesign of the Trident missile system, which could have cost, operational, and timeline implications for the UK's own program.

The document concludes that further clarification is needed regarding the status and feasibility of the proposed options, and the UK's embassy in Washington will be asked to seek more information on these matters.