Page 3 from FCO 371/149546

In this message from December 1959, the author (initials J.I.B.) discusses a reevaluation of their perspective on China and its nuclear capabilities. The message is a contribution to the 1960 Sino-Soviet Tar Potential paper. The mentioned paragraph discusses the potential date of a Chinese nuclear test, stating that, based on their current progress and available resources, it is possible that China could conduct a nuclear test by 1963. However, the author acknowledges that the evidence is not strong enough to determine the probability of this date. They note the challenges China would face due to limited resources and the uncertainty of whether a tested nuclear device would be deliverable as a weapon. Nevertheless, the author highlights the haste and secrecy surrounding the Chinese program, suggesting that early testing of a nuclear device cannot be ruled out as their goal.