Pages 124-126 from FCO 105259 - South Africa and the Nuclear Situation 1979

This note reports on a meeting held with John Marcum from the White House regarding the possible South Atlantic nuclear explosion. It discusses the findings of various panels that studied the event. The first panel concluded that the Vela satellite did not malfunction, while the Nuclear Intelligence Panel concluded that it was likely a nuclear explosion. The third panel, consisting of eminent scientists, reviewed the data and excluded other possible causes for the signals. AFTAC provided an "other pile" of unexplained signals, including one from 1971, but it was tentatively attributed to a micro-meteoroid. The panel concluded that while a natural phenomenon could not be excluded, a nuclear explosion was still the more likely explanation. The panel planned to meet again to prepare their final report. Further analysis was being conducted on the signals and weather conditions at the time of the event. John Marcum expressed skepticism about a nuclear explosion occurring and suggested that the final outcome might be inconclusive, posing a dilemma for US policy towards South Africa. Copies of the note were sent to relevant officials in different departments.