Views of Chinese Military and Civilian Analysts on the Strategic Defense Initiative

Chinese strategic thinkers are concerned about the impact of the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) on global security and China's own security interests. They believe that the current parity between the United States and the Soviet Union provides a stable international environment that is conducive to China's economic and military modernization. Chinese analysts view SDI primarily in political terms and question the US's sincerity in seeking nuclear disarmament. They are aware of the Soviet Union's own SDI program and believe Moscow's opposition to SDI is aimed at delaying the US's efforts. Some Chinese analysts worry that the Soviet Union may resort to force against the US or a deployed SDI system. They also believe that SDI may exacerbate tensions within NATO and reduce the US defense commitment to Europe. Chinese analysts see a positive effect of SDI on arms control talks by forcing the Soviets back to the table. However, they are concerned that the US's refusal to discuss SDI gives the Soviet Union a propaganda advantage. Chinese analysts fear that the deployment of an SDI system by the Soviets may neutralize China's small nuclear deterrent. They expect to have 20 to 30 years to develop countermeasures. Additionally, they express concerns about being left out of the technological advancements resulting from SDI research and may consider participation in European research projects. The analysts believe that the Soviet Union's focus on stopping SDI provides an opportunity for improved ties between the Soviet Union and China, which would increase China's maneuverability in the Sino-Soviet-US triangle. While they are cautious about aligning too closely with Moscow on SDI, they state that China will criticize the US if it perceives the Soviet Union as genuinely seeking an agreement and views US "intransigence" on SDI as the main obstacle.