India and Pakistan: Rising Tensions

The relationship between India and Pakistan is currently highly uncertain and tense, resembling the period following the Indo-Pakistani war in 1971. The deterioration in relations is primarily attributed to the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan. Indian Prime Minister Gandhi strongly opposes Pakistani President Zia's support for Afghan resistance forces, Pakistan's acquisition of advanced US military equipment, and the development of nuclear weapons.

Gandhi aims to limit US support for Pakistan to maintain it as a militarily weak buffer state, ensuring that Pakistan cannot challenge India's dominance in the region. She employs a mix of veiled threats and conciliatory gestures towards Pakistan, including a global lobbying effort to pressure against the proposed US-Pakistani assistance package and impede its approval in the US Congress. If her concerns about Pakistan escalate significantly, Gandhi is prepared to take punitive actions, such as a limited incursion or targeting Pakistan's nuclear facilities.

Pakistan is attempting to address India's concerns about a potential Pakistani threat. Both countries are open to revitalizing diplomatic dialogue but continue to perceive each other as hostile, with a lingering anticipation of an eventual attack.

Meanwhile, the Soviet Union is conducting an intense propaganda campaign to discourage Pakistan from supporting the Afghan resistance movement and to reinforce India's belief that maintaining close ties with the USSR is crucial for its security.

The paper was prepared by the Near East-South Asia Division's Office of Political Analysis and involved coordination with other intelligence agencies. The information used in the paper was up to date as of May 27, 1981. Feedback and inquiries regarding the paper can be directed to the Chief of the Near East-South Asia Division.