Iran-Iraq: Ballistic Missile Warfare and Its Regional Implications

Iran-Iraq: Ballistic Missile Warfare and Its Regional Implications The use of surface-to-surface missiles in the Iran-Iraq war foreshadows an increasing reliance by both countries on these weapons to help achieve regional dominance. The lack of a defense against missiles and their ability to hit targets throughout the Middle East will encourage Tehran and Baghdad to acquire large numbers of more sophisticated missiles. The missiles’ advantages as a delivery system will probably lead the two countries to try to develop chemi in the next few years and nuclear warheads in the late Iran and Iraq have fired Soviet-made Scud and FROG-7 missiles at each other to weaken civilian morale and to disrupt military and economic activities. Although the small warheads and inaccuracy of these weapons have limited their effectiveness, missiles will continue to play a part in both sides’ war strategy: ~ They will fire additional missiles against each other’s cities in retaliation for renewed attacks on civilian targets. ~ Iran may use most of its limited supply of missiles against Baghdad during a major ground offensive in an effort to disrupt Iraqi military command and control and to undermine civilian morale. - Tehran could also use missiles to threaten or punish the Arab Gulf states for their support of Iraq if Iran suffers a serious setback in the war. - If Baghdad develops chemical warheads for its missiles, it probably will use them to disru t an Iranian offensive that threatens to inflict a major defeat on After the war, when Iraq has acquired missiles with a long range such as the Soviet SS-12, improved Scud, or Brazilian Sonda, Baghdad will use the threat of missile strikes, especially with chemicals in the late 1980s or nuclear warheads developed in the late 1990s, to help deter future Iranian aggression. The improved Scud or other new, longer range missiles also will give Iraq a deterrent against Israel, although the likelihood of Israeli retaliation will make Baghdad reluctant to employ them. Iran hopes missiles will deter aggression by Iraq, the USSR, and Israel, although it does not have rockets that can reach Israel. Israel probably would not launch preemptive strikes on Iraqi long-range missiles; it has not attacked similar systems in Egypt or Syria. If Israel determined that Iraq was again attempting to build nuclear weapons, it probably would strike nuclear development facilities rather than try to destroy missile launchers