Worsening Brazil—US Relations

This document is a memorandum from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) dated February 11, 1977, regarding worsening relations between Brazil and the United States. The memo highlights the criticism from the US towards the Brazil-West German nuclear agreement and the hostile reaction it has generated in Brazil's highest policy circles. It warns that these criticisms could lead to long-term damage in US-Brazilian relations.

The memo explains that Brazil views US efforts to halt nuclear proliferation as an attempt to hinder its economic and technological development. Brazil sees nuclear energy as a way to supplement costly hydroelectric power and reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels. Brazil's ambitions for world prestige also play a role, as its military leaders believe that possessing nuclear capabilities is essential for great power status.

While Brazil still relies on the US for military defense and economic investment, its expanding economy has enabled it to establish closer ties with other powerful nations, reducing US leverage. The US has been losing ground in trade with Brazil, while West Germany and Japan are increasing their investments in the country. Brazil is willing to take economic risks in its relations with the US on the nuclear issue, indicating that US influence in Brazil is declining.

Domestically, Brazilian President Geisel's refusal to revise or delay the implementation of the Brazil-West German nuclear accord has gained him political support. Opposition to Geisel appeared to be growing, but the nuclear issue has overshadowed other problems. US pressure on the nuclear issue is seen as an insult by Brazilians, who have rallied behind Geisel's decision.

The memo concludes that the nuclear controversy could increase Geisel's popularity and strengthen the concept that Brazil needs a military president, potentially influencing the choice of his successor. This reinforces the notion that Brazil is postponing a return to civilian rule.