South Africa: Have Prospects for Accession to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Improved?

South Africa is considering joining the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) but is unlikely to become a party to the treaty before the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) General Conference in September 1988. State President Botha sees political, technical, and economic incentives to join the NPT, but fears political backlash before upcoming municipal elections. Pretoria is expected to begin negotiations on the NPT, seeking concessions from nuclear suppliers and commitments from the IAEA. It may delay its accession until after the elections and exhaust possibilities for delay. Despite joining the NPT, South Africa is unlikely to sacrifice its nuclear weapon capability due to national defense concerns. South Africa's current exclusion from the nuclear community due to sanctions means treaty accession won't guarantee all benefits. However, Pretoria values IAEA membership, improved nuclear import/export prospects, and international recognition as an advanced nuclear state. South Africa's participation in the NPT has both positive and negative implications for nonproliferation efforts. While it would make the country less attractive for clandestine weapons collaboration, assuring South Africa's commitment to the treaty poses political and technical challenges.