The Politics of NPT Extension: Countdown to the Conference

Aswe approach the April 1995 Conference on the Treaty on the Non.-l_’r_oliferation i of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), it appears unlikely that-a consensus will emerge in . ‘, favor of the US-preferred option of "unconditional, indefinite extension. " :We .1 cannot discount the possibilityofa two-thirds majority—which would represent a - 1 strong vote of confidence in the T reaty—if the Nuclear Weapon States (NWS) \ e make significant progress on some key arms control issues before the NPT Conference. A simple majority vote for indefinite extension—as required by the T reaty-"seemsachievable, particularly if the United States and its allies sustain a _ substantial, high-level diplomatic "effort in support of that outcome. The situation is fluid, however, and momentum appears to be- growing in-favor of the 25-yea.-rl I fixed-term extension option. This trend is partly fed by perceptions among some ' ; nonaligned states that the ' tates and the West-are not firm in their support _ for indefinite extension.1